Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Rally at Risk as Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are facing renewed macroeconomic pressure as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting rise sharply.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price an 86.5% probability that the Fed will raise its target rate by 25 basis points from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. The odds were around 70% before the latest U.S. inflation data showed consumer prices rising 3.4% year over year in August.

A rate increase would be the Fed’s first in three years and could tighten financial conditions for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, economists remain less convinced. A Bloomberg survey found fewer than 13% of 48 respondents expect a September hike.

Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin’s technical outlook remains constructive. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said BTC may undergo a brief consolidation before its next upward move. His analysis identifies the $90,000-$92,000 area as the next major target, arguing that bull markets often experience sideways consolidation rather than deep corrections.

Ethereum is also testing an important resistance zone. Analyst Ted Pillows said ETH has returned to resistance near $2,550, with the cryptocurrency trading around $2,535. A sustained weekly close above $2,550 could open the way toward resistance above $2,800 and potentially $3,000. Key downside support sits near $2,215 and $1,965.

XRP faces a more fragile setup after falling roughly 20% in three weeks from $1.70 to $1.35. Analyst Ali Martinez said whales sold or redistributed approximately 90 million XRP over the past week, while daily active addresses plunged from 388,492 to 38,163.

Martinez identified $1.35 as a decisive XRP support level, where about 2.29 billion tokens have previously changed hands. Holding that level and reclaiming $1.38 could support a recovery toward $1.60 and potentially $1.68.

With the Fed decision approaching, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP traders are closely watching interest-rate expectations as higher borrowing costs could weigh on crypto market momentum.