Bitcoin Options Signal Long-Term Bullish Bias as Short-Term Hedging Rises

Bitcoin (BTC) options positioning continued to signal longer-term bullish expectations, even as short-term flows tilted toward downside protection, highlighting a market that remains optimistic but increasingly cautious amid near-term price softness.

Data from Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, showed total Bitcoin options 'open interest' at 155,061 contracts with an estimated notional value of about $9.27 billion as of Thursday 00:55 UTC (Thursday 9:55 a.m. in Seoul). Call open interest stood at 91,769 contracts versus 63,292 put contracts, putting the put/call ratio at 0.69—generally considered a bullish range when below roughly 0.7–0.8.

That divergence between positioning and recent activity became clearer in the latest 24-hour tape. Put volume totaled 27,415.9 contracts, slightly ahead of call volume at 25,629.1 contracts. The 24-hour put/call ratio rose to 1.07, a level typically associated with a modestly defensive stance as traders pay up for protection or place short-term bearish bets.

Options market structure also pointed to a tug-of-war between upside targeting and tail-risk hedging. Deribit’s data indicated a 'max pain' level near $71,000—where option buyers would theoretically suffer the most losses at expiry—often watched as a potential gravitational zone as expiration approaches, though it is not a predictive indicator on its own.

For the nearest expiries, open interest was most concentrated in $80,000 call options, underscoring continued appetite for upside exposure. Significant open interest was also observed at $90,000 calls, suggesting some traders are positioning for a larger breakout scenario. At the same time, sizable interest in $20,000 put options pointed to sustained demand for extreme downside hedges—positions commonly used as portfolio insurance rather than outright directional bets.

Across all maturities, $80,000 calls again dominated open interest, reinforcing the market’s longer-horizon optimism. However, large clusters in $60,000 and $50,000 puts suggested investors are simultaneously building protection around key downside zones, consistent with expectations for heightened volatility rather than a one-way trend.

The most actively traded individual contracts over the past day included the $65,000 call expiring July 3, as well as multiple put strikes—$56,000 expiring July 10 and $60,000, $59,000, and $58,000 puts expiring June 26—showing near-term demand concentrated in hedges around current price levels and immediate expiration risk.

Expiration preferences further illustrated the split in sentiment. Open interest was heavily concentrated in longer-dated expiries—particularly Dec. 25 (65% calls), Sept. 25 (63% calls), and June 26 (59% calls)—while the highest trading activity was concentrated in nearer dates, led by June 26 expiries where puts accounted for 70% of volume.

Spot prices reflected the cautious tone. Bitcoin was trading around $59,690, down 1.85% on the day as of Thursday 01:00 UTC, according to TokenPost Market data.

Overall, the options market is showing a familiar late-cycle posture: sustained 'upside conviction' in open interest paired with near-term 'risk hedging' in flows. For investors and traders, the mix suggests expectations remain constructive over time, but the market is paying closer attention to downside scenarios around upcoming expirations as BTC attempts to stabilize.