Samson Mow Says Bitcoin Bottom Is Already In as Halving Cycle Accelerates

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow believes the cryptocurrency has already reached its market bottom, arguing that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated and that investors relying on historical patterns may be overlooking a major shift in the market.

In a post on X on Sunday, Mow challenged the widespread belief that Bitcoin still has several months before reaching its cycle low. “I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,’” he wrote.

Mow, known for his long-term $1 million Bitcoin price prediction, his work with El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy, and his efforts to promote nation-state Bitcoin adoption, pointed to Bitcoin’s price action before the April 2024 halving as evidence that the market cycle has changed.

According to Mow, Bitcoin reached a then-all-time high 37 days before the halving, an event that had never occurred in previous cycles. He argued that if the market peaked earlier than expected, the rest of the cycle should also be considered accelerated. “The bottom is in,” said the former Blockstream chief strategy officer.

The idea that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is evolving has gained traction since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024. Many market observers believe institutional demand has altered Bitcoin’s historical price behavior, although others argue that more time is needed before declaring the cycle permanently changed.

Not all analysts share Mow’s bullish outlook.

CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently argued that Bitcoin may have limited downside based on a historically reliable contrarian indicator involving the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. As the 50-week average approaches a bearish crossover below the 100-week average, previous occurrences have coincided with major market bottoms, leading some traders to interpret the signal as bullish rather than bearish.

Other analysts expect further weakness before Bitcoin establishes a definitive bottom.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes Bitcoin is more likely to bottom near $55,000 sometime between August and October. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has projected an even deeper decline, forecasting Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 within the next six months.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten also remains cautious. He recently suggested Bitcoin may still need to decline by 15% or more before completing the current bear cycle. His analysis centers on the 200-week moving average, a long-standing technical indicator that has historically played a key role in identifying major market bottoms.

Van Straten noted that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, while on-chain data indicates the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next critical support zone. He added that every major bear market since 2011 has ultimately seen Bitcoin trade below its realized price before forming a lasting bottom.

With analysts divided between calls for a confirmed bottom and predictions of another sharp decline, Bitcoin investors continue to debate whether institutional demand has fundamentally reshaped the market cycle or whether historical patterns will once again prevail.