XRP Rises Above $1.14 as ETF Inflows and On-Chain Data Signal Accumulation

XRP (XRP) extended its rebound on Friday, climbing above the closely watched $1.14 level as a cluster of technical indicators and improving flow data fueled a fresh round of optimism. The move comes despite lingering regulatory uncertainty in Washington, where delays to key digital-asset legislation continue to weigh on broader sentiment.

As of Friday UTC, XRP was trading around $1.1442, up 4.81% over the past 24 hours. The token is up 8.10% over the past seven days, signaling a clear short-term recovery, even as the medium-term picture remains pressured: XRP is still down 4.37% over 30 days and 18.34% over 60 days.

Market attention has centered on a new technical buy trigger on the four-hour chart. According to 24/7 Wall St, the 'SuperTrend' indicator—an ATR-based trend tool commonly used to identify shifts in momentum—flashed a buy signal for the first time since mid-June. The outlet noted that the previous comparable signal was followed by an approximately 14.2% rally in XRP, encouraging traders looking for evidence that downside momentum is fading.

Longer-horizon indicators are also drawing interest. Some analysts point to the monthly 'RSI' dipping below 40, a level they characterize as historically stretched on the downside. Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto described the setup as consistent with a potential accumulation phase, though the market remains sensitive to macro headlines and policy developments in the U.S.

In the near term, traders are treating the $1.11 to $1.18 region as the immediate test. Based on current pricing levels, key resistance zones are clustered around $1.11, $1.14, and $1.18. CoinCheckup’s short-term modeling suggested roughly 14% upside from current levels, with a scenario that places XRP near $1.24 by early August if momentum persists. Separate commentary cited by Yahoo Finance similarly argued that a sustained bid could keep price action anchored toward the $1.15 area.

On the downside, analysts have highlighted $1.05 to $1.06 as the most important support band. 24/7 Wall St pointed to on-chain positioning around that range, estimating that roughly 830 million XRP last changed hands there. A decisive daily close below $1.06, the report warned, could shift market focus toward the next major liquidity cluster nearer $0.80—an outcome that would likely accelerate risk-off positioning.

Institutional flows, however, have offered a counterweight to the regulatory overhang. U.Today reported that U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of about $6.55 million on July 2, with the entirety attributed to Bitwise’s product. Total assets under management across seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs now stand at roughly $987.91 million—about 1.5% of XRP’s total market capitalization—placing the category within reach of the psychologically significant $1 billion mark.

Notably, ETF flows have remained positive for eight consecutive weeks even after a modest quarter-end pullback, suggesting that 'institutional demand' has not meaningfully deteriorated amid shifting expectations for U.S. crypto policy.

On-chain signals have also leaned constructive. A report distributed via GlobeNewswire said the number of active XRP wallet addresses surged 72% over the past two weeks, while exchange-held XRP balances fell to their lowest level since 2019. A declining exchange balance is commonly interpreted as an 'accumulation' sign, as it may indicate token withdrawals to private wallets and reduced near-term selling intent.

Supply dynamics added another data point: the market absorbed Ripple’s scheduled escrow release of 1 billion XRP on July 1 with little visible price disruption, according to U.Today. The lack of immediate downside reaction has been read by some participants as evidence that organic demand—alongside ETF-related buying—can digest routine supply events. Over the same period, new wallet creation on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) reportedly reached a three-month high.

Beyond price and flows, the XRPL ecosystem may be inching toward new functionality aimed at larger capital allocators. 24/7 Wall St reported that XRPL validators are voting on whether to introduce an institutional-focused lending protocol. If adopted, the change could broaden DeFi capabilities on XRPL by enabling on-chain credit and yield features tailored to professional users, potentially strengthening the chain’s competitive positioning in a segment dominated by Ethereum (ETH) and a handful of high-throughput networks.

Still, the dominant macro variable remains U.S. legislation. The market had been expecting progress in early July on the 'CLARITY Act', a bill intended to sharpen definitions distinguishing digital assets as securities or commodities—an issue with direct implications for how tokens like XRP are treated. The measure was not advanced as anticipated due to a Senate recess, a delay that contributed to bearish pressure across June, when XRP fell roughly 20%. Market participants now see late July at the earliest for renewed debate.

That legislative delay has already filtered into institutional forecasts. Standard Chartered cut its year-end XRP target to $2.80 from $8, citing a lower probability that the CLARITY Act passes within 2026. The bank maintained that its $8 projection could still apply if the bill ultimately clears, while longer-dated scenarios cited by market commentators range as high as $12.60 in 2028 and $28 by 2030.

For now, sentiment remains strained: the crypto Fear & Greed Index was cited at 21, firmly in 'extreme fear' territory. In practical terms, traders are watching whether XRP can establish acceptance above the $1.10 to $1.15 band, while the path of U.S. regulatory policy—particularly the timetable for the CLARITY Act—continues to act as the primary catalyst for the token’s medium-term direction.