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Bitcoin Price Cycles May Be Over as Asset Matures, Says K33 Research

Bitcoin Price Cycles May Be Over as Asset Matures, Says K33 Research.

Bitcoin’s historic four-year boom-and-bust cycle may be nearing its end, according to a new report from K33 Research. Traditionally, Bitcoin has followed a predictable pattern, surging to all-time highs in the year following its quadrennial halving events—seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Previous bull runs typically peaked around 1,060 days after the market bottom, which would suggest a potential top by mid-October this year.

However, K33 analysts argue that this pattern is breaking down as Bitcoin matures into a more stable and widely adopted financial asset. "The impact of halvings is materially smaller today than in the past," the report notes. In earlier cycles, halving events triggered sharp supply shocks that led to rapid price rallies. Today, the influence of those events appears to be waning.

The report highlights that growing institutional adoption, the rise of regulated investment vehicles, and increasing interest from sovereign players have fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market dynamics. As macroeconomic forces—such as global inflation and trade tensions—take a stronger hold, Bitcoin's price movements are becoming more reflective of broader financial trends rather than internal supply mechanics.

K33’s analysts suggest that Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative, reflexive asset into a more established store of value, reacting to global economic shifts rather than relying solely on its programmed scarcity. This shift could mean that traders and investors should no longer expect the same explosive post-halving rallies of the past.

As Bitcoin trades above $118,000, its growing role in global finance may continue to drive price action beyond historical cycles, marking a new phase in its development as a digital asset.

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Great article. Requesting a follow-up. Excellent analysis.

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Great article. Requesting a follow-up. Excellent analysis.
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