Bitcoin and Gold Face Pressure as Fed Signals More Rate Hikes

Bitcoin and gold remain under pressure after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first hike since 2023. The unanimous FOMC decision lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% as policymakers responded to elevated inflation.

The rate increase initially pushed Bitcoin (BTC) back into its consolidation range while gold (XAU) retested the $4,200 area. Attention is now shifting toward the Fed’s remaining 2026 meetings as traders assess the possibility of additional monetary tightening. The next scheduled FOMC decisions are October 28 and December 9.

Prediction markets cited in the original report showed a 46% probability of another 25-basis-point increase in October, while CME FedWatch data indicated a 41% chance of rates reaching 4.25%-4.50% by December. The Fed’s latest projections also showed a median year-end federal funds rate estimate of 4.1%, although individual policymakers’ forecasts varied considerably.

Further rate hikes could create headwinds for Bitcoin and gold by supporting the U.S. dollar and increasing the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets.

Bitcoin was trading around $78,499 while holding key support near $75,600. BTC has returned to a $76,000-$80,000 consolidation zone, with the 20-day EMA around $76,800 serving as an important technical level. A sustained move higher could bring $77,600 and eventually $80,000 into focus.

However, selling pressure remains a risk. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly recorded $746 million in net outflows over two days beginning September 15. A renewed downturn could put the $74,900 area back in play.

Gold has also recovered from its immediate post-FOMC decline, with XAU/USD rebounding to around $4,331 after briefly testing lower levels. The precious metal’s resilience suggests investors are weighing persistent inflation and liquidity conditions against tighter monetary policy.

Still, additional Fed tightening could challenge both assets. If markets increasingly price another 50 basis points of hikes before year-end, gold could face renewed pressure toward $4,000, while Bitcoin may struggle to break decisively above its current consolidation range.