Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits 6-Year High as BTC Eyes $85K

Bitcoin price gained 0.96% on September 4, trading near $79,262 and extending its one-month rally to roughly 23%. Gold has also climbed sharply, rising from $4,130 on August 4 to around $4,512. The simultaneous gains have pushed the Bitcoin-gold correlation to its highest level in six years, according to Bitwise.

Bitwise CIO André Dragosch said Bitcoin recorded its strongest weekly gain since March 2024 after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for government bond buybacks in August. BTC surged 22.4% during the week, while gold advanced about 5% even as many crypto-related stocks declined.

Dragosch said Bitcoin and gold increasingly “moved in lockstep,” lifting their three-month rolling correlation to its highest level since 2020. At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has fallen to its lowest level since 2025.

Bitwise attributes the trend to growing investor concerns about fiat currencies and government bond selling. These worries may be encouraging investors to seek exposure to both Bitcoin and gold as alternative stores of value.

Despite their stronger correlation, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold. BTC climbed from around $63,000 in August to above $81,000 on September 4, pushing the XAU/BTC ratio to 0.05496, its lowest level since January 2026. Technical indicators suggest the ratio remains in a strong downtrend, potentially opening the door to the 2025 low near 0.047.

However, stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting. Bitcoin subsequently slipped toward $78,000, while XAU/BTC rebounded about 2.4%.

Bitcoin is now testing support near the middle Bollinger Band at $78,726 after encountering resistance at $81,363. A close below this level could expose BTC to the lower Bollinger Band near $75,335.

On the upside, analysts see $85,000 as a potential Bitcoin price target if BTC successfully holds above the $80,600 breakout area. Lower Fed rate-hike expectations and declining U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for another Bitcoin rally.