Polymarket Sees 75% Chance of US Government Shutdown as Bitcoin Holds Firm

Prediction market Polymarket is signaling heightened concern over a potential US government shutdown, assigning a 75% probability to a lapse in funding by January 31 during Asian morning hours. Total betting volume on the outcome has surpassed $13.3 million, reflecting growing uncertainty among traders and investors. The current impasse is driven primarily by Democratic opposition to the Department of Homeland Security funding bill, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stating he will oppose any legislation that funds Immigration and Customs Enforcement without major reforms.

If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by midnight on January 30, several federal agencies could face a partial shutdown. However, this scenario differs markedly from the full government shutdown seen in October 2025, which lasted a record 43 days after all 12 appropriations bills were blocked. This time, six spending bills have already been enacted, significantly reducing the scope and potential economic damage of a shutdown.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, departments including Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy already have full fiscal-year funding. DHS also retains roughly $178 billion in reserve funding from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed last year, allowing it to continue operations largely uninterrupted. As a result, the impact on financial markets may be far less severe than during the previous shutdown.

Last October’s full shutdown triggered a sharp liquidity squeeze as the Treasury General Account surged to $1 trillion, draining about $700 billion from markets and pressuring risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. At the time, a pseudonymous analyst known as CryptoOracle warned of a major Bitcoin correction followed by a historic rally. That forecast was tied specifically to a full shutdown scenario, which now appears less likely.

Market observers note that shutdown threats are often resolved at the last minute. Historical data suggests that roughly 60% of similar crises end in a deal, driven by economic costs and political pressure. Bitcoin appears relatively resilient so far, trading near $89,177, up modestly over the past day, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows amid broader macroeconomic factors.