ADA Whales Accumulate as Retail Sells: Is Cardano Near a Turning Point?

Smart money wallets have continued to accumulate Cardano (ADA) over the past two months, even as the cryptocurrency’s price has trended lower. This divergence between whale accumulation and retail selling is drawing attention from market watchers, as it has historically preceded potential trend reversals in crypto markets.

Over the last two months, ADA has declined by roughly 19%, mirroring broader market volatility. After an early rally in January 2026, Cardano’s price reversed sharply, erasing much of its year-to-date gains. At the time of writing, ADA is trading around $0.35, posting a modest 2% daily increase in line with a wider market rebound. While price action remains muted, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture.

According to Santiment, large Cardano holders controlling between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have accumulated approximately 454.7 million tokens during this period. At current prices, that represents more than $160 million in whale accumulation, signaling sustained confidence among major investors. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have steadily increased their exposure, while mid-sized wallets between 1 million and 10 million ADA briefly paused accumulation before resuming in January 2026.

In contrast, retail investors have been reducing their positions. Wallets holding 100 ADA or less have collectively sold around 22,000 ADA over the past three weeks. Historically, this pattern of retail capitulation combined with whale accumulation has often created favorable conditions for a rebound once market sentiment stabilizes.

Beyond price action, Cardano’s fundamentals remain resilient. The number of ADA holders has grown from approximately 3.17 million in November to over 3.22 million, reflecting steady adoption within the ecosystem. DeFi metrics also show stability, with Cardano’s total value locked standing near $162 million and remaining close to 460 million ADA since October, despite ongoing price weakness.

From a technical standpoint, some analysts believe ADA is consolidating within a long-term demand zone, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal if support holds. Upside targets discussed by analysts range from $0.63 to above $1.30. However, near-term resistance remains a challenge, as significant sell walls could limit upward momentum until buying pressure strengthens.

Overall, while short-term hurdles persist, the combination of whale accumulation, growing adoption, and stable DeFi activity supports a cautiously optimistic long-term outlook for Cardano.