Bitcoin Struggles Below $100K as Supply Pressure Mounts While Gold Hits Record Highs

Bitcoin is finding it difficult to regain upside momentum as persistent supply pressure continues to cap rallies, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm notes that recent price advances have repeatedly stalled near levels where short-term holders originally bought, triggering selling activity from investors looking to exit at breakeven or cut losses. This dynamic has created a strong overhead supply zone, particularly between $98,000 and $100,000, making a sustained breakout above the $100K level challenging in the near term.

Glassnode highlights that many investors accumulated bitcoin during the 2025 highs, and recent rebounds have encouraged these holders to sell into strength. This behavior reinforces resistance and leaves the upside fragile. From a market structure perspective, futures trading volumes remain compressed, leverage usage is subdued, and overall participation is thin. As a result, recent price movements have occurred in relatively low liquidity environments, increasing vulnerability to renewed distribution.

Options and prediction markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. On Polymarket, traders are increasingly betting that bitcoin will continue consolidating rather than staging an immediate rally. In contrast, sentiment around gold remains decisively bullish. Market participants are assigning higher odds that gold will hold above $5,500 through mid-year, reflecting expectations of ongoing macroeconomic stress and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold has surged to fresh record highs above $5,000 an ounce, supported by sustained central bank buying, escalating geopolitical flashpoints, and a weaker U.S. dollar. These factors have strengthened gold’s role as a reliable hedge against global risk, drawing capital that might otherwise flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, ether is underperforming bitcoin, with weak demand, muted derivatives activity, and little evidence of a rotation back into higher beta crypto assets. Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000, stuck in what Glassnode describes as a digestion phase, working through internal supply constraints rather than responding to external catalysts. For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains range-bound as the market waits for stronger participation and clearer signals for renewed upside.