Bitcoin Posts Q1 Loss as Weak Rebound Signals Ongoing Bearish Cycle

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a modest short-term rebound, but its first-quarter performance remains firmly in negative territory—reinforcing the view that the market is still stuck in a broader bearish cycle despite sporadic relief rallies.

Data from Coinglass as of Tuesday 1:20 a.m. ET shows Bitcoin entering week 13 of 2026 with a weekly gain of 1.07%. The move follows two consecutive losing weeks—week 11 (-6.79%) and week 12 (-2.78%)—suggesting a tentative bounce after sustained selling pressure. Even so, the recovery remains muted compared with historical norms for the same calendar week, when the average return has been 8.68% and the median 2.74%.

On a daily basis, Bitcoin was down 0.15% at the time of the report, giving back part of Monday’s 1.14% advance, which had marked its first sustained uptick in four trading sessions. The rapid shift back to slight losses underscores a market still searching for direction, with rallies proving fragile and quickly met by profit-taking.

Month-to-date, Bitcoin is down 0.15%, according to Coinglass. That underperforms March’s historical average return of 11.33%, while sitting slightly above the median March outcome of -1.22%. Seasonality data indicates March has been a mixed month historically, finishing lower in seven out of the past 13 instances. Although Bitcoin traded higher earlier in the month, the momentum has faded into a narrow, near-flat range—an increasingly common pattern in risk-off phases when liquidity and conviction are limited.

The weakness is more pronounced on a quarterly basis. Bitcoin’s Q1 return stands at -23.7%, far below the historical average first-quarter gain of 45.86% and also well under the median of -2.26%. Past first-quarter results have been nearly evenly split—six gains versus seven declines over 13 observations—highlighting that Q1 is not reliably bullish, even in years with strong annual follow-through. This year’s result, however, stands out for the depth of the drawdown relative to both historical averages and the broader expectation that post-halving cycles often support higher prices.

Longer-term performance figures illustrate Bitcoin’s sharp regime shifts from year to year. StatMuse data shows annual returns of -64.3% in 2022, 155.4% in 2023, 121% in 2024, and -6.3% in 2025. So far in 2026, Bitcoin is down 24.6% year-to-date, a reset that reflects the asset’s tendency to alternate between outsized gains and steep retracements as leverage, macro expectations, and liquidity conditions evolve.

Price action on spot markets remained choppy. As of Tuesday 1:15 a.m. ET, TokenPost Market data showed Bitcoin trading at $66,681, up 1.28% from the prior day. The level places BTC well off recent highs, but still above ranges that have previously attracted longer-term buyers—creating a standoff between dip demand and a market that has yet to see a decisive catalyst for sustained risk-on positioning.

Ultimately, the latest weekly bounce offers some near-term relief, but the quarter’s performance keeps pressure on sentiment. Until Bitcoin can string together stronger weekly returns relative to historical baselines—and convert brief spikes into durable trends—the market is likely to interpret rallies as tactical rebounds within an ongoing downcycle rather than the start of a new sustained upswing.