CLARITY Act Approval Odds Slip as Senate Focus Shifts Toward AI Policy

The approval odds for the CLARITY Act in 2026 have declined this week as attention in Washington increasingly shifts toward artificial intelligence policy. Prediction markets are reflecting growing uncertainty over the timeline for advancing major cryptocurrency legislation, particularly as lawmakers balance multiple regulatory priorities.

According to Kalshi, the probability of crypto market structure legislation passing in 2026 has fallen to 48%, down from 50% earlier in the week. Similarly, Polymarket data shows the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 have dropped to 51%, compared with 55% previously.

Market participants are also becoming less optimistic about near-term progress. Kalshi currently estimates a roughly 26% chance that the CLARITY Act will pass before August, while the likelihood of approval before July remains below 2%.

The decline in sentiment comes as the Senate Banking Committee prepares to focus on artificial intelligence policy. On June 11, the committee is scheduled to hold a hearing titled “AI and the American Dream,” which will examine innovation, affordability, and maintaining U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence. The upcoming discussion has fueled speculation that AI regulation may take precedence over digital asset legislation in the coming weeks.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The legislation seeks to provide clear definitions for cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based assets while outlining the responsibilities of federal agencies overseeing the crypto sector. Supporters believe the bill could bring long-awaited regulatory clarity to the U.S. digital asset market.

Investor expectations were further tempered by recent comments from Senator Cynthia Lummis. She acknowledged that lawmakers may require additional time before advancing the bill through the Senate. While Lummis noted that a Senate vote before the July 4 congressional recess remains possible, she indicated that completion before the August recess appears more likely.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has already been placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar, but no official floor vote has been announced. Despite the recent decline in prediction market odds, traders continue to see a meaningful possibility that crypto market structure legislation will eventually move through Congress and become law in 2026.