Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Sees BTC Reaching $125K by 2026 End

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has sparked fresh optimism in the crypto market after predicting that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 before the end of 2026. Speaking at Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026, Hayes outlined a bullish outlook driven largely by global liquidity trends, macroeconomic shifts, and evolving monetary policies.

Hayes emphasized that rising government spending, particularly on defense amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, is a key factor increasing liquidity in global markets. According to him, higher fiscal expenditures often lead to an expansion in money supply, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He argued that liquidity remains the primary force behind Bitcoin price movements over the long term.

The former exchange executive also pointed to potential regulatory changes within the U.S. banking system. He suggested that banks may increasingly absorb government debt, injecting additional liquidity into financial markets. This, combined with possible leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, could result in looser monetary policies that further support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

Hayes also touched on broader economic factors, including the impact of artificial intelligence on credit markets and deflationary pressures. Despite escalating geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the United States and Iran, he noted that investors are still primarily focused on macro liquidity rather than shifting into defensive positions.

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $75,800, showing modest gains within a tight consolidation range. The price remains below the $78,000 resistance level, which has limited upward momentum in recent sessions. Technical indicators such as the MACD remain in negative territory, while the RSI hovers near 40, indicating neutral to slightly bearish conditions.

A breakout above $78,000 could trigger a move toward $80,000 and potentially $82,000. However, failure to hold above $74,000 may lead to further downside, with key support levels near $73,000 and $70,000.

Hayes maintains a long position on Bitcoin, reinforcing his belief that if liquidity conditions align as expected, BTC could reach his ambitious $125K target by December.