CryptoQuant CEO Warns of Prolonged Bitcoin Bear Market as Institutional Selling Weighs on Prices

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a stark warning that the current Bitcoin market is firmly in a bear cycle, suggesting that a meaningful recovery could take several months and may require further downside before a sustainable rebound begins. His outlook is based on on-chain data and capital flow trends that indicate persistent weakness across the crypto market.

According to Ju, massive capital inflows have failed to translate into higher overall crypto market capitalization. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars entering the market, total market value has stagnated or even declined. This imbalance signals that selling pressure is overpowering new demand, a classic indicator of a Bitcoin bear market. Historically, deep corrections in Bitcoin price have required at least three months of consolidation before investor sentiment meaningfully improved, and Ju cautions against interpreting short-term price bounces as the start of a new bull run.

He outlined two potential recovery scenarios. In the first, Bitcoin could fall toward its realized price near $55,000, which represents the average on-chain cost basis of holders. A retest of this level has often acted as a reset point before renewed upward momentum. The second scenario involves prolonged sideways trading between $60,000 and $70,000, with months of range-bound consolidation before the next breakout.

Ju also pointed to weakening institutional participation as a major factor behind recent price declines. As Bitcoin volatility declined, institutions pursuing beta-delta-neutral strategies shifted capital toward assets like the Nasdaq and gold. Data from CME markets shows a reduction in short positions, reflecting capital withdrawal rather than bullish positioning.

The outlook for altcoins appears even more fragile. While trading volume remained active in 2024, fresh inflows were limited to select tokens tied to potential ETF listings. The broader altcoin market cap failed to surpass previous highs, suggesting capital rotation rather than expansion. Ju believes narrative-driven rallies are unlikely in the near term, and recovery in investor sentiment may take considerable time.