Bitcoin Price Crash Warning: Glassnode and CryptoQuant Signal More Downside Risk

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has renewed concerns about a potential Bitcoin price crash, highlighting weakening demand compared to the period following the 2022 LUNA collapse. The data suggests that BTC may face further downside pressure, with a break below key psychological support at $60,000 potentially triggering widespread liquidations.

According to Glassnode, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals strong supply concentration around the $65,000 zone, a level built during the first half of 2024 accumulation phase. While this range has recently absorbed selling pressure, analysts warn that a decisive move below it could open the door to a deeper correction toward Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $54,000.

Glassnode also observed that during Bitcoin’s sharp decline in November 2025, the market absorbed intense sell pressure similar to reactions seen after the LUNA and FTX crashes. However, the recent drop toward $60,000 showed noticeably weaker accumulation compared to previous rebounds. The 7-day EMA of the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1 after remaining above that level for nearly two years, signaling that long-term holders are now realizing losses. Historically, such shifts in conviction tend to occur in the later stages of bear markets.

Adding to the bearish outlook, Glassnode reports that spot trading volumes remain structurally weak, creating a demand vacuum and accelerating realized losses. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has even suggested Bitcoin could decline to $40,000 if the bear market intensifies.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data indicates that Bitcoin has not yet formed a durable bottom. The platform notes that BTC is still trading above its Realized Price support near $55,000. In previous cycles, Bitcoin fell 24% to 30% below realized price before establishing a base over several months. Current market cycle indicators remain in the Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase, which historically signals the beginning of long-term bottom formation.

Options market data from Deribit shows a large cluster of put options around $58,000, meaning a break below $60,000 could spark a liquidation cascade and intensify volatility in the crypto market.