XRP Tests $1.13 Key Support as Downside Risks Build Despite XRPL Expansion

XRP (XRP) is hovering just above a key technical floor near $1.13, with market watchers warning that a weekly close below that level could accelerate downside pressure even as the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem posts fresh infrastructure wins.

As of June 12 at 9:05 p.m. UTC, XRP was trading at $1.1318, down 0.30% over 24 hours but up 0.07% on the hour, according to CoinMarketCap data cited in the report. The token is modestly higher on the week (+1.33%), yet its broader trend remains heavy: XRP is down 20.50% over 30 days and 18.74% over 90 days, underscoring a persistent medium-term drawdown.

Spot activity also cooled. XRP’s 24-hour trading volume totaled about $1.52 billion, down 14.62% from the prior day, with centralized exchanges accounting for virtually all of that flow. XRP’s market capitalization stood around $70.23 billion, with circulating supply near 62.05 billion tokens.

Technical analysts are increasingly framing $1.13 as the market’s near-term pivot. CryptoRank described $1.13 as a ‘critical support’ and warned that slipping below it on a weekly closing basis could invite sustained selling. In that scenario, the first downside zone is seen around $0.90–$1.00, followed by a deeper support level near $0.70—implying a potential additional decline of more than 35% from current levels if bearish momentum builds.

LiteFinance analysts echoed that caution through an Elliott Wave lens, interpreting current price action as part of a broader corrective pattern in a fifth-wave decline. Their framework highlights a sell entry region around $1.134 with a target near $0.894, while noting that oversold signals across multiple timeframes leave room for a short-term bounce or consolidation before any decisive break.

Derivatives-adjacent sentiment appears similarly skewed. According to 24/7 Wall St, a Robinhood-linked prediction market is pricing approximately a 71% chance that XRP will trade below $1 at some point in 2026. The implied probability of XRP dipping below $0.80 was about 53%, below $0.60 about 25%, and below $0.40 about 19%. By contrast, the market placed only a 29% chance that XRP remains above $1 throughout the year, with many participants clustering their expected trough region around $0.60–$0.80—an outlook reflecting meaningful downside risk from current prices.

Still, price fragility is arriving alongside tangible ecosystem expansion. Ripple said it is working with Mexico-based crypto exchange Bitso to broaden stablecoin payment capabilities using XRPL rails, enabling the movement of fiat-linked tokens via the ledger. The effort is positioned as particularly relevant for cross-border remittances and FX settlement across Latin America, where faster settlement and lower transaction costs can translate into operational advantages for fintechs and payment providers.

Separately, Ripple unveiled an ‘XRPL AI Starter Kit’ aimed at helping developers integrate autonomous payments for AI agents. The toolkit is designed to let software agents initiate and settle transactions on XRPL with minimal friction—an attempt to position the network for emerging ‘AI-native’ payment flows, automated commerce, and potential Internet-of-Things-linked transaction models. A Ripple executive argued that growth in the AI-agent economy could open multi-billion-dollar opportunities for XRPL-enabled payment infrastructure.

Adding another layer of narrative support, market chatter has circulated around XRP’s possible inclusion in a Nasdaq index tracking major altcoins—an outcome that, if confirmed, could broaden regulated access via index-linked products for institutional allocators. However, the claim has not been verified by an official announcement from key index providers or exchange sources, leaving it in the realm of speculation pending further confirmation.

Macro conditions remain the swing factor. Bitunix noted that a recent rebound in the Nasdaq has helped stabilize wider risk sentiment, including crypto markets, but emphasized that elevated U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing inflation concerns keep conditions tight. With the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week, traders are bracing for policy signals that could influence near-term direction across risk assets. XRP’s historically high correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) means any decisive move in BTC—or a meaningful shift in broader risk appetite—could quickly cascade into XRP’s technical battleground at $1.13.

For now, XRP sits at an inflection point: a market testing ‘critical support’ while the underlying network pursues new payment rails and developer tooling. Whether the token holds above $1.13 into a weekly close, how the Fed shapes expectations next week, and whether XRPL’s expansions translate into real adoption are likely to be the key variables shaping XRP’s next major move.