Bitcoin Price Recovery Faces Key RSI Test Before Confirming New Bull Run

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from recent lows below $60,000, briefly climbing back above the $64,000 mark. While the recovery has sparked optimism among crypto traders, technical indicators suggest it may be too early to confirm the start of a new Bitcoin bull run.

One of the most closely watched indicators in cryptocurrency trading is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 generally indicating overbought conditions and readings below 30 signaling oversold territory.

According to crypto analytics platform Material Indicators, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI level of 41.5 has historically acted as a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish market conditions. When BTC’s weekly RSI remains above 41.5, the cryptocurrency has typically sustained long-term upward momentum. When it falls below this level, bearish sentiment tends to dominate the market.

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, noted that Bitcoin’s RSI is currently below the key threshold and continues to trend lower. While this does not necessarily mean BTC prices will experience a major decline, it suggests that bulls still need to prove that a lasting recovery is underway.

Historical market data supports this view. During major Bitcoin bull markets, including the 2015-2017, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025 rallies, the weekly RSI consistently remained above 41.5. In contrast, some of the strongest bear market phases, such as late 2018 and much of 2022, occurred while the indicator traded below that level.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,000, while the weekly RSI stood at 34. Analysts believe a move back above 41.5 would provide the first significant technical confirmation that the Bitcoin market has found a bottom and is transitioning into a bullish trend.

Traders are also closely monitoring the RSI level of 31.89, which marked the previous weekly reading. A drop below that level could signal additional downside risk for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

For now, Bitcoin’s recent price rebound remains encouraging, but technical analysis suggests investors should wait for stronger confirmation before declaring the start of a new crypto bull market.