Crypto Bettors Wager Over $2 Billion on World Cup Champion, Spain and France Favored

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already made history before reaching its knockout stages, with crypto prediction markets exceeding $2 billion in total bets on the tournament winner. As the competition kicked off in Mexico City, traders across major platforms remain divided on which nation will ultimately lift football’s most prestigious trophy.

According to data from leading prediction markets, Spain and France are currently tied as the top favorites, each holding roughly a 16% chance of winning the World Cup. Meanwhile, defending champion Argentina trails behind with a 9% probability, highlighting a shift in market sentiment since its triumph in Qatar.

The record-breaking volume comes primarily from Polymarket, which has generated approximately $1.9 billion in trading activity, while Kalshi has contributed another $132 million. Together, they have created the largest prediction market event ever recorded in the crypto industry.

Polymarket launched its World Cup winner market in July 2025, allowing participants nearly a year to speculate on the eventual champion. Trading activity surged significantly as the tournament approached, with more than $66 million traded in the last 24 hours alone. The platform currently hosts 328 active World Cup-related markets, supported by a liquidity pool of more than $352 million.

The growing popularity of prediction markets has been one of the biggest trends in 2025, following heavy participation in events such as the U.S. presidential election and the Super Bowl. The World Cup is now serving as the largest test yet for blockchain-based betting and forecasting platforms.

Behind Spain and France, England and Portugal are both priced near 11%, while Brazil holds an estimated 8% chance of securing the title. Despite being the reigning champion, Argentina is no longer viewed by crypto bettors as the clear team to beat.

The tournament also marks FIFA’s entry into blockchain-powered prediction markets. Through its partnership with ADI Predictstreet, a platform powered by Chainlink technology, FIFA now supports an official on-chain prediction ecosystem alongside established operators such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

With 104 matches scheduled across 38 days, the 2026 World Cup will ultimately determine whether the collective wisdom behind more than $2 billion in bets accurately predicts the next world champion.