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Bitcoin was trading around $74,700 during Asian morning hours on Friday, slipping 0.4% over the past 24 hours but still posting a solid 3.5% weekly gain. The modest pullback came as a 10-day rally in global equities took a breather ahead of next week's U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline.
Altcoins showed mixed but largely positive momentum. Ether dipped 1.4% to $2,327 yet led weekly gains among major tokens at 6%. XRP held near $1.43 with a 6.4% weekly rise, Solana climbed 2.7% to $87.67, BNB edged up 0.7% to $629.89, and Dogecoin gained 5.6% to sit at $0.0976.
Broader markets reflected cautious optimism. The MSCI All Country World Index reached a record high Thursday before easing 0.1% in Asia, and the S&P 500 also hit an all-time high. Brent crude slid 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump stated that a permanent Iran ceasefire was "looking very good," though Tehran has yet to confirm the reported terms. Separately, Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day ceasefire, sending further relief through equity markets.
Beneath bitcoin's relatively flat price action, a notable signal is emerging. Perpetual futures funding rates have turned deeply negative, reaching levels not seen since 2023. When funding goes negative, short sellers are paying long holders — a sign that bearish bets have piled up heavily. Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, noted that if bitcoin continues rising against this backdrop, forced liquidations could accelerate the move, potentially pushing the price toward $125,000 within 30 to 60 days.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt adds a cautionary counterpoint, noting that the average active bitcoin holder currently sits at a cost basis above current prices. Historically, extended periods below this level have preceded significant bear markets. Both outlooks can coexist — a short squeeze may drive a sharp rally that long-term holders ultimately sell into. How this plays out may hinge on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds beyond next week.
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