Bitcoin vs Gold: BTC Nears Historic Inflection Point as Gold Hits $5,100

The Bitcoin vs gold debate is intensifying in February 2026 as both hard assets send mixed market signals. Gold has surged to new record highs above $5,100, fueled by strong macroeconomic flows and safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price has struggled to break above the $67,000 level, remaining in a consolidation phase that has lasted nearly a month. This divergence has reignited discussions about which asset is poised for its next major expansion.

According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, the true measure of performance lies in the BTC vs gold ratio rather than USD price alone. He notes that Bitcoin has been declining relative to gold for roughly 14 months, after peaking in December 2024. Historically, similar Bitcoin vs gold bear markets occurred in 2013–2015, 2017–2019, and 2021–2022. Each cycle ended with Bitcoin entering a multi-year bullish trend.

Technical indicators further support this outlook. The weekly RSI on the BTC vs gold chart has dropped to record lows, levels that previously marked macro bottoms for Bitcoin. This suggests BTC may be approaching the end of its relative downtrend. Van de Poppe argues that Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high in USD terms is somewhat misleading, as gold was also rising at the time, limiting BTC’s independent strength.

Market sentiment reflects caution. Polymarket data shows only a 29% probability that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026. However, prolonged consolidation often precedes significant volatility in crypto markets. Adding to the shift in institutional sentiment, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) options recently became the ninth-largest in the U.S. market, surpassing major gold ETFs in trading volume. JPMorgan analysts have also suggested Bitcoin may hold stronger long-term appeal than gold.

While gold maintains strong upward momentum, the BTC vs gold ratio indicates Bitcoin could be nearing a historical inflection point. A reversal in this ratio may trigger a sharper percentage gain for BTC compared to gold. Still, analysts like Willy Woo warn that macro risks, quantum computing fears, and dormant coins re-entering circulation could create downward pressure. With global debt concerns rising, investor demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold is likely to remain elevated.