Bitcoin Price Near Bear Market Bottom? Analysts See Long Consolidation Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stabilizing after a sharp selloff earlier this month, but analysts caution that a rapid recovery may not be on the horizon. According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, current market conditions resemble late-stage bear market phases seen in September and November 2022, periods that preceded extended consolidation before a broader recovery.

During the 2022 downturn, Bitcoin traded between $15,000 and $20,000, nearly 70% below its 2021 all-time high. Today, BTC is fluctuating within a narrower range of $65,000 to $70,000. K33’s regime model, which analyzes derivatives data, ETF flows, technical indicators, and macroeconomic signals, suggests the market may be nearing a cyclical bottom. However, history indicates that this phase could involve prolonged sideways movement rather than an immediate breakout.

Recent data supports the consolidation narrative. Spot trading volumes have dropped 59% week-over-week, while perpetual futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. Funding rates remain negative, signaling reduced speculative activity. This cooling-off period often follows liquidation cascades, allowing investors to reset positions and reassess risk.

U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have also experienced significant outflows, with a record decline of 103,113 BTC in exposure since early October. Despite Bitcoin’s nearly 50% retracement, more than 90% of peak ETF exposure remains intact in BTC terms. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently plunged to an extreme low of 5, reflecting deeply bearish sentiment.

Analysts believe Bitcoin is likely near a global bottom but could remain between $60,000 and $75,000 for an extended period. Long-term investors may view current price levels as attractive for accumulation. Historically, Bitcoin tends to trade sideways for long stretches before delivering explosive gains in short bursts. Missing those key rallies can mean missing much of the upside, making patience and strategic positioning critical in the current crypto market cycle.