Solana ETF Approval Odds Surge to 76% as Market Awaits SEC Decision

Confidence in a Solana ETF approval is rising rapidly. According to a recent update from SolanaFloor on X, Polymarket now predicts a 76% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve pending S-1 ETF filings by July 31. This marks a 13% jump in just 24 hours, reflecting growing optimism among investors.

Polymarket's odds are not certainties but rather a real-time snapshot of market sentiment. The surge suggests increasing confidence that a Solana-based exchange-traded fund could soon receive regulatory approval. Several major asset managers—Fidelity Investments, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise—have submitted S-1 filings to the SEC for Solana ETFs. However, the regulatory body has yet to issue any formal decisions.

The momentum began building earlier in 2025 when the SEC acknowledged the ETF filing from Canary Capital, shortly after confirming receipt of a similar application by Grayscale Investments. These acknowledgements, while not approvals, indicate that the SEC may be moving toward formally reviewing the applications.

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, previously noted in December 2024 that Solana stands a strong chance of approval, especially amid increasing pressure for more crypto-based ETFs to enter the market.

Despite the bullish sentiment in prediction markets, Solana's price has not yet responded positively. As of the latest data, SOL trades at $149.86, down 4.43% in the past 24 hours.

With more than five high-profile asset managers in the running and rising market anticipation, the path to a Solana ETF approval could shape crypto markets significantly in the months ahead.