Cardano ETF Odds Surge to 55%, Boosting Network Activity and Investor Hopes

The crypto market is abuzz as prediction platform Polymarket shows a 55% probability of a Cardano (ADA) ETF approval by the end of 2025—a sharp 45% jump from earlier this year. This growing optimism follows the successful approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S., prompting speculation that Cardano could be next.

If approved, a spot ADA ETF would mark a major milestone, likely attracting significant institutional capital and further legitimizing Cardano as a leading blockchain platform. The network’s strong fundamentals—including a proof-of-stake consensus model and continuous ecosystem development—make it a compelling candidate for regulatory greenlight.

Market analysts attribute the surge in confidence to shifting regulatory attitudes and increased acceptance of crypto-based investment products. While optimism is high, experts warn that approval is not guaranteed and regulatory hurdles remain.

Meanwhile, Cardano’s on-chain activity has also seen a notable uptick. According to Cardanoscan, daily transactions on the network ranged from 10,000 to 50,000 between April 30 and May 15. From April 30 to May 6, transaction volume remained between 30,000 and 35,000, but momentum increased after May 7, often surpassing 40,000 and nearing 50,000 by May 15.

These figures reflect growing engagement within the Cardano ecosystem, suggesting the platform is experiencing heightened real-world utility beyond speculative trading. While still below all-time highs, this steady rise in usage aligns with rising investor confidence tied to the potential ETF approval.

With Cardano's ETF odds climbing and network activity strengthening, all eyes remain on regulators as the crypto community waits to see if ADA will join Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF spotlight.