Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure Despite Rising Realized Cap, Warns Analyst Ju

Bitcoin is flashing bearish signals despite increasing capital inflow, according to analyst Ju, who bases his analysis on the "realized cap" metric. This metric measures the total capital entering the Bitcoin market by calculating the average purchase price of coins when they enter a wallet, treating it as a buy. Multiplying this cost basis by the number of coins held reveals how much actual money has flowed into the market.

Currently, Ju observes a troubling trend: although capital is entering, the market cap remains stagnant. Unlike realized cap, which reflects investor behavior, market cap is determined by the last traded price on exchanges—driven purely by supply and demand. When selling pressure dominates, even large buys fail to lift prices.

Ju warns this is precisely what's happening now. “Capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t moving,” he noted. This mismatch signals a bearish phase where buyers are overwhelmed by sellers, and big-name investments like BlackRock's recent dip-buy or GameStop’s strategic shift haven’t been able to turn sentiment.

The outlook for a quick rebound looks grim. Ju predicts that even if sell pressure eases, history shows real market reversals typically take six months or more. Therefore, a short-term Bitcoin rally appears unlikely in the current climate.

Bitcoin is trading at $83,006 as of April 5, 2025, according to CoinGecko.