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Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant price fluctuations in 2025, dropping to $89,600 on January 13. Market participants are closely watching the unfilled CME Bitcoin futures gap at $78,000, raising concerns about a potential downward correction.
According to CoinTelegraph on January 17, Bitcoin’s price reached a peak of $100,305 in early January before falling to $89,600. This decline has brought attention to a CME futures gap formed between $77,900 and $80,900 during November 9–10, 2024, when futures prices surged by 3.8%. CME gaps are often filled as prices adjust to these ranges, and some traders predict Bitcoin could retest the $78,000 level.
Macroeconomic Risks Pressure Bitcoin
Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s recent decline to macroeconomic concerns. JJ, a derivatives expert at Highstrike, noted that momentum in the Bitcoin market has weakened amid rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which have surpassed 4.7%.
“With momentum lacking and macroeconomic risks such as potential Fed tightening on the horizon, a dip to the $78,000 range is a plausible scenario for Q1,” JJ explained. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 29 could also apply further pressure on Bitcoin prices.
On-Chain and Technical Analysis
On-chain data supports the possibility of a downward adjustment. The Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart shows limited transaction activity below $88,000, reinforcing the likelihood of a move toward lower levels.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin futures have been holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, a break below this level could lead to a test of the 100-day SMA, aligning with the CME gap area near $78,855.
Market Outlook
As Bitcoin hovers at a potential turning point in its bullish trend, analysts and traders are closely monitoring whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its upward momentum or succumb to the pressures driving it toward the CME gap level.
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