Rick Rieder Emerges as Market Favorite in Fed Chair Race as Powell’s Term Nears End

The race to become the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Rick Rieder now leading market expectations amid growing political and investor attention. Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, has surged ahead in prediction markets following public praise from President Donald Trump, signaling a notable shift in sentiment as Jerome Powell’s term approaches its May 15 conclusion.

According to Polymarket data, Rick Rieder currently holds the highest odds of nomination at 57.5%, reflecting strong confidence among traders. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh trails with 29%, while current Fed Governor Christopher Waller stands at 6.8%. Kevin Hassett, a former Trump economic advisor, follows closely with 6%, suggesting more limited expectations for his selection. These odds highlight how rapidly market expectations have consolidated around Rieder.

President Trump recently confirmed that the candidate pool has narrowed significantly, stating in a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the list has gone from 11 candidates to “maybe one.” Trump also described Rieder as “very impressive” after meeting with him, further fueling speculation that a decision could be imminent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that an announcement could come as early as next week, potentially aligning with the January FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27 and 28.

Policy direction remains a central issue in the Fed Chair selection process. Jerome Powell has maintained a higher-for-longer interest rate stance to fully address lingering inflation pressures, with the federal funds rate currently ranging between 3.5% and 3.75% following December rate cuts. In contrast, Rieder has publicly suggested that the neutral rate may be closer to 3%, a view that aligns more closely with Trump’s criticism of the current pace of rate reductions.

Rieder oversees approximately $2.4 trillion in assets at BlackRock, giving him deep exposure to yield curves, credit markets, and liquidity conditions tied to monetary policy. He has also commented on cryptocurrency markets, describing Bitcoin in 2021 as “interesting” and potentially durable over time, a stance that could draw additional attention from digital asset investors.

As scrutiny around the Federal Reserve increases, including a DOJ investigation into Powell’s Senate testimony, the Fed Chair race continues to evolve. With shifting market odds, clear policy contrasts, and Trump’s public endorsement, Rick Rieder now stands at the center of expectations as the nomination decision draws closer.