ARK Invest’s Bold Bitcoin and Nvidia Outlook Signals a Shift in the 2025 Market Cycle

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has released one of its most detailed long-term outlooks to date, outlining ambitious projections for Bitcoin and a more measured view on Nvidia in its latest Big Ideas 2026 report. These two assets were central to the 2024–2025 market cycle, and ARK’s analysis highlights how their trajectories may diverge in the years ahead.

According to ARK Invest, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow by roughly 700% over the next four years, driven by a structural change in how the asset behaves. In 2025, Bitcoin experienced smaller drawdowns, reduced volatility, and stronger risk-adjusted returns compared to previous cycles. Measured by the Sharpe Ratio, Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum, Solana, and the broader crypto market, reinforcing ARK’s thesis that Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a safe-haven asset rather than a purely speculative investment.

ARK forecasts that the total cryptocurrency market could reach $28 trillion by 2030, growing at an annual rate of about 61%. Crucially, the firm expects Bitcoin to command around 70% of that market, implying a market cap near $16 trillion. Based on projected supply, this would translate to a Bitcoin price of approximately $800,000 per coin, nearly nine times higher than current levels. While ARK reduced expectations for Bitcoin’s role as an emerging-market hedge due to the rise of stablecoins, it increased its “digital gold” assumption following gold’s strong performance in 2025.

In contrast, ARK’s outlook for Nvidia is more cautious. While global AI infrastructure spending is expected to exceed $1.4 trillion by 2030, competition in AI hardware is intensifying. Hyperscalers and AI labs are prioritizing total cost of ownership, opening the door for custom chips and ASICs from competitors like AMD, Broadcom, and in-house solutions from Amazon and Google. Although Nvidia’s GPUs remain among the most powerful, their high operating costs could pressure margins over time.

For Nvidia stock, ARK suggests future gains will rely more on earnings growth, software, and ecosystem strength rather than continued multiple expansion, signaling a transition from explosive dominance to more competitive, volatile growth.