Bitcoin Options Signal 30% Chance of BTC Falling Below $80K as Tariff Fears Shake Crypto Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $91,000 level as renewed tariff rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump rattled global markets, with on-chain derivatives data now pointing to growing expectations of a sharper downside move in the coming months. According to data from decentralized trading platforms, traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that the bitcoin price could fall significantly below current levels.

Market participants on Derive.xyz, a decentralized protocol offering on-chain options, perpetuals, and structured products, are assigning roughly a 30% probability that bitcoin will drop below $80,000 by the end of June. This downside risk outweighs bullish expectations, as the same data suggests only a 19% chance of BTC rising above $120,000 over the same period. Analysts say this imbalance reflects a clear bearish skew in the bitcoin options market.

Options trading allows investors to speculate on future price movements by purchasing call or put contracts. Call options benefit if bitcoin rises above a predetermined level, while put options gain value if prices fall below a set threshold. Although these contracts limit losses to the premium paid, aggregated options activity often provides insight into broader market sentiment. In this case, traders appear to be hedging against further downside, signaling concern over macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin last traded near these lower levels in April 2025, when prices briefly fell to around $75,000 following sweeping U.S. tariffs that disrupted global financial markets. Similar fears have resurfaced after President Trump threatened a 10% import levy on several European nations amid escalating tensions related to Greenland. Since those comments, BTC has declined from approximately $95,000 to near $91,000.

Analysts warn that rising geopolitical uncertainty between the U.S. and Europe could push bitcoin back into a high-volatility environment. This concern is reinforced by persistent negative options skew and a notable buildup of open interest in put options between $75,000 and $80,000 on both decentralized platforms like Derive.xyz and centralized venues such as Deribit. Together, these signals suggest traders are bracing for a potential bitcoin price drawdown into the mid-$70,000 range if market conditions worsen.