Bitcoin Sell-Off Driven by Mid-Cycle Holders as Long-Term Whales Hold Steady

Bitcoin’s recent downturn appears to be fueled more by mid-cycle holders than long-term whales, according to VanEck’s latest Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report. The investment firm noted that wallets whose coins last moved within the past five years have contributed most to the current selling pressure, even as bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. In contrast, the oldest holding cohorts—wallets untouched for more than five years—have remained unusually stable despite broader market weakness and negative sentiment.

VanEck highlighted that long-dormant coins continue flowing into the 5+ year age group, adding roughly 278,000 BTC over the past two years. This persistent growth signals strong conviction among long-term holders, even as prices have fallen sharply from the October all-time high. Bitcoin recently traded around $86,696, down more than 3% on the day and over 31% from its peak of $126,080, based on CoinGecko data.

Analysts cite a mix of factors behind the decline, including forced liquidations, market-wide deleveraging, and long-term distribution. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau told Euronews that “OG” holders with large balances have been offloading coins for weeks, creating heavy supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex pointed to aggressive trading behavior on offshore derivatives platforms, where professional firms use strategies such as spoofing and laddering to exploit rapid price moves.

VanEck also observed significant rotation among active traders. The 3–5 year age band has shrunk 32% in two years as mid-cycle holders shift coins, while open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has dropped 20% in BTC terms since Oct. 9. Funding rates have reset to levels typical of washed-out speculative periods. Notably, smaller whale wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased their balances by 9% in six months and 23% over the past year, even as the largest whales reduced exposure.

According to VanEck, the combination of long-term holder resilience, cyclical turnover, and derivatives-market capitulation places bitcoin in a “reset” phase—conditions that have historically preceded short-term recoveries.