U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Likelihood Soars as Focus Turns to Trump’s Crypto Policies

The probability of President-elect Donald Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve after his inauguration has surged to 70% in betting markets, fueling anticipation within the cryptocurrency industry.

According to CoinTelegraph on January 8, prediction markets like Kalshi, a U.S. derivatives exchange, and Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, estimate a 70% and 42% likelihood, respectively, that Trump will establish a Bitcoin reserve by 2026. Polymarket further suggests a possibility of action within Trump’s first 100 days in office, reflecting a 20% increase in predictions since early January.

Accurate Predictors of Political Trends

Kalshi and Polymarket gained prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with over $4 billion in trading volume. Both platforms accurately predicted Trump’s victory and the Republican takeover of Congress, outperforming traditional polling methods. These platforms operate by trading event-linked contracts whose prices fluctuate dynamically based on anticipated outcomes.

Trump’s Commitment to Bitcoin Reserve

Trump’s commitment to a national Bitcoin reserve stems from his July 2024 pledge at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. He promised to establish a “National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and affirmed that the government would not sell its Bitcoin holdings. In November 2024, the “BITCOIN Act” was introduced, requiring the U.S. Treasury to purchase 1 million BTC over five years.

Recent reports from the New York Post indicate that Trump is also exploring an expanded reserve including USD Coin (USDC), Solana (SOL), and XRP. He is reportedly planning to sign an executive order designating cryptocurrency as a national priority.

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

Research firm CoinShares commented on January 10 that implementing a national Bitcoin reserve could have a more profound and long-term impact on the cryptocurrency market than the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. Analysts believe such a move would accelerate adoption and mark a pivotal shift in the U.S. approach to digital assets.

With expectations high and the likelihood increasing, Trump’s Bitcoin reserve proposal could become a defining moment for the global cryptocurrency landscape.