Bitcoin Faces Quantum Threats as Experts Warn of Looming Risks

Bitcoin’s long-term security is facing growing scrutiny as experts warn of quantum computing’s potential to break its cryptography. At the All-In Summit 2025, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko cautioned that Bitcoin must adopt quantum-resistant cryptography within five years or risk severe breaches. He argued that artificial intelligence is accelerating quantum advances, raising the odds of a successful attack to “50/50” by 2030.

Tech leaders point to Google and Apple’s adoption of quantum-safe tools as evidence that migration is already underway. Regulators are also setting strict timelines. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized post-quantum standards in 2024, while the NSA’s CNSA 2.0 plan requires full adoption by 2033. The Bank for International Settlements has urged banks to prepare for cryptographic agility. Meanwhile, Microsoft and IBM are racing to scale powerful quantum chips, signaling rapid convergence of AI, quantum research, and chip design.

Governments are responding too. El Salvador recently split its Bitcoin reserves across multiple addresses to limit exposure. Yet the crypto community remains divided. Some researchers warn Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signatures could be broken within five years, while others, including Blockstream’s Adam Back and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, believe quantum threats remain decades away.

Recent tests highlight both progress and limits. In September 2025, IBM’s 133-qubit Heron processor cracked a six-bit elliptic curve key—a trivial task for classical computers, but proof that real hardware can run quantum circuits. Experts note Bitcoin’s 256-bit security would require millions of error-corrected qubits, likely more than a decade away. Still, the risk of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks—where data stolen today is decrypted in the future—remains a pressing concern.

For now, Bitcoin’s defenses hold, but upgrades such as Taproot and post-quantum schemes like NIST’s Dilithium may become essential to safeguard the network.