Bitcoin Bottom Debate: Grayscale Sees $65K Floor as Analysts Predict Deeper 2026 Low

Grayscale has stirred debate in the crypto market by suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) may have already reached its bear-market bottom between $65,000 and $70,000. This outlook contrasts with broader market expectations that anticipate a later bottom sometime in 2026. The firm’s analysis is based on on-chain data, particularly a key metric known as the “realized price,” which reflects the average cost basis of Bitcoin based on its most recent transactions.

According to Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, Bitcoin’s recent rally—gaining more than 20% since its February 5 low near $63,000—has brought many recent investors back to their breakeven levels. Grayscale estimates that coins moved within the past one to three months have a realized price of around $74,000, which sits close to the current market price. This suggests that a large portion of newer market participants are no longer at a loss, a signal often associated with the early stages of a bullish trend.

Grayscale argues that if Bitcoin continues to rise, more investors will enter positive profit territory, reinforcing the idea that the market has already undergone capitulation. While Bitcoin remains below its previous peak in October, the firm believes the February rebound could represent a strong and lasting price floor.

However, not all analysts agree with this bullish outlook. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, maintains that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom is more likely to occur around October 2026. He notes that an earlier bottom would require unusually strong capitulation, beyond what is typically seen in mid-cycle downturns. Similarly, Joao Wedson of Alphractal expects the lowest point to arrive in late September or early October 2026.

Data from CryptoQuant also supports a longer timeline, projecting a potential bottom between June and December 2026, with the highest probability in the September to November range. This divergence in forecasts leaves investors weighing whether Bitcoin has established a bottom or if further downside remains before a sustained recovery begins.