Bitcoin Price Aligns With Difficulty Regression Model as Market Eyes Fair Value

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again closely tracking the Difficulty Regression Model, a widely referenced metric from Checkonchain that estimates the network’s all-in sustaining production cost. The model considers mining difficulty as a distilled measure of miners’ operational expenses, reflecting variables such as hardware efficiency, energy pricing and logistics. Because these inputs are inherently embedded in difficulty adjustments, the model serves as an industry-wide gauge of the average cost to produce one bitcoin—without requiring granular assumptions.

Currently, the model’s valuation sits near $92,300, almost exactly matching Bitcoin’s spot price around $92,808, signaling that BTC is trading near its estimated fair value. Earlier dips briefly pushed price below the model—most notably when BTC fell toward $80,000—but the market has since recovered. Historically, Bitcoin tends to maintain a bull-market structure when trading above this model, while sustained breaks below it often coincide with bear-market regimes.

In April 2025, Bitcoin dropped to around $76,000, rebounding precisely at the model’s level at the time, reinforcing its reputation as an important technical and psychological support zone. For much of 2025, Bitcoin traded at a premium of roughly 50% above the model, whereas throughout 2024 the price hovered much closer to fair-value territory.

The contrast with previous cycles is notable: during the 2022 bear market, BTC traded at a deep 50% discount to production cost. In past bull markets, premiums expanded far more aggressively, with BTC doubling the model’s value in 2021 and reaching an extraordinary 5× premium during the 2017 rally. As the asset matures, extreme deviations from production cost appear less common.

Additional valuation frameworks, including Metcalfe-law network analyses, also place Bitcoin’s fair value near $90,000. Together, these indicators suggest BTC is currently priced near equilibrium, offering investors a clearer view of market conditions as the next cycle unfolds.