Is Bitcoin’s Market Peak in? On-Chain Data Suggests Otherwise

Bitcoin's recent slowdown has sparked debate on whether its price has peaked. However, historical data and on-chain analytics suggest the cycle may still have room to grow. According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin’s past market tops occurred 12-18 months after a halving event, indicating a potential peak between mid-to-late 2025. While institutional activity and regulations may influence the cycle, data suggests Bitcoin remains in a mid-cycle phase.

Stablecoin trends reinforce this outlook. Historically, stablecoin supply peaks have aligned with Bitcoin’s cycle highs. In April 2022, supply hit $187 billion just before the bear market began. Currently, stablecoin market capitalization has reached $219 billion and continues rising, signaling sustained liquidity inflows rather than a market top.

Bitcoin has experienced sell pressure from recent buyers, weakening demand and slowing accumulation. After reaching an all-time high of $109,114 on Jan. 20, Bitcoin dropped nearly 30% to $76,555 on March 11, its lowest level since November 2024. This decline triggered massive liquidations and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Options traders anticipated a further drop to $70,000 in late February.

Despite this, Bitcoin rebounded to $85,301 on Friday before facing resistance. At press time, Bitcoin was down 1.69% in 24 hours, trading at $82,864, with key resistance at the 200-day SMA of $83,984.

With stablecoin liquidity growing and Bitcoin’s historical cycles pointing to a future peak, analysts suggest the market still has upside potential. While short-term volatility persists, long-term trends indicate Bitcoin’s rally is far from over.