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While Bitcoin has recently declined to its lowest price this year, a new report is bringing in a bullish outlook for the crypto’s long-term prospects. According to Blockware Intelligence, BTC could hit an adoption rate of 10 percent globally as early as 2030.
In its Bitcoin User Adoption report released last week, Blockware Intelligence predicts that BTC’s adoption will follow an S-Curve pattern just like past disruptive technologies. These include technologies such as automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet and social media.
“Societal adoption of disruptive technologies is never a linear process – it has always followed an exponential S-Curve pattern,” Blockware Intelligence wrote. “Bitcoin is a disruptive technology network that is quantifiably still in its early stages of adoption.”
The report said that Bitcon’s adoption rate will likely pick up steam past its early adoption phase. “After the early adoption phase the technology hits the fastest acceleration of adoption; the exponential point of the ‘S’ curve of adoption,” Blockware wrote. “This is where the technology begins to get widespread attention and known by most technologists around the world.”
Unlike older disruptive technologies, however, newer, network-based technologies have adopted faster than the market expect. This network effect has been observed in the adoption of the internet, smart phones, and social media. This is likely to happen in Bitcoin’s adoption as well.
“Much of the value of these technologies comes from them having network effects,” the firm added. “Case in point if you were the only user on Twitter would it be of any value? It would not. More users make these technologies more valuable. Moreover, the network effect exists with all monetary goods including Bitcoin. Thus, it makes sense to forecast Bitcoin adoption with more emphasis on technologies similar to it in this regard.”
Bitcoin adoption is expected to reach saturation quicker than previous technologies. The report cited several reasons for this expectation which includes “direct monetary incentives to adopt, macro environment end game, and rails of adoption growth being the internet; and the most efficient state of informational spread on the internet ever.”
Blockware Intelligence plans to update the Bitcoin adoption model with fresh data every six months. “Just as there is a risk to owning BTC (through volatility), there is also a risk of not owning BTC during this time period of accelerated adoption,” the report concluded.
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