Bitcoin Shows ‘Buyer Stagnation’ Despite Record Holder Supply, ETF Outflows Persist

Bitcoin (BTC) is sitting in a ‘buyer stagnation’ phase despite a record rise in long-term holders, according to new research from Crypto.com. The report argues that the market’s problem is not a shortage of supply but a shortage of fresh demand—an imbalance that has blunted rebound momentum even as traditional U.S. risk assets pushed to new highs.

Crypto.com said long-term holder supply—coins considered inactive for an extended period—has climbed above 15.8 million BTC, the highest level on record. Under normal conditions, shrinking liquid supply is interpreted as bullish. This time, however, the firm sees a different dynamic at work: rather than reflecting aggressive accumulation, the growing long-term bucket appears to be driven by coins simply not moving in a market with thinning participation and slower turnover.

Flows in U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs reinforced that interpretation. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.4 billion in net outflows, worsening from about $1.2 billion the prior week. Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs also remained under pressure, posting around $241 million in net outflows following roughly $216 million the week before. Over the same period, BTC and ETH fell 4.4% and 4.5%, respectively, highlighting the weak ‘liquidity inflow’ needed to sustain upside moves.

“Long-term holding can be a sign of conviction, but it doesn’t automatically translate into price strength,” the report’s framing suggested, emphasizing that near-term direction hinges more on whether new capital enters the market than on incremental supply contraction.

The contrast with U.S. equities was stark. A softer April core PCE print—up 0.2% month over month versus expectations of 0.3%—helped ease inflation concerns and pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield down roughly 12 basis points to around 4.45%. Risk appetite improved, sending the Nasdaq up 2.39% on the week and lifting the S&P 500 by 1.43% to 7,580.06, another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.90%.

AI-linked tech strength was particularly pronounced. Dell Technologies ($DELL) surged 32% in a single session after disclosing an AI-server order backlog of $24.4 billion. Meanwhile, reports of a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran weighed on crude: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell nearly 10% to around $88 per barrel, easing energy-driven inflation fears and further supporting equities. Crypto markets, often grouped with risk assets in macro narratives, failed to “catch” the same tailwinds—an illustration of the recent ‘decoupling’ that observers say has become more visible in recent weeks.

Still, institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure continued even as token prices retrenched. Mastercard ($MA) secured a New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) BitLicense, positioning the payments giant to advance blockchain-based settlement initiatives using stablecoins and tokenized deposits. CME Group ($CME) also rolled out 24-hour trading for crypto futures and options, a move aimed at improving access and flexibility for institutional participants across time zones.

Regulation, however, remains uneven. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reported to have paused plans to grant innovation-related exemptive relief for ‘tokenized stocks’ trading, citing concerns around ownership verification. In a separate policy signal, President Trump criticized state-level moves to restrict prediction markets and voiced support for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction—underscoring the fragmented and evolving oversight landscape facing crypto-adjacent markets.

Crypto.com’s bottom line is that the week’s price action was driven more by ‘demand absence’ than by supply mechanics. Even with long-term BTC holdings at an all-time high, the market may struggle to regain traction if new buyers remain sidelined. The firm expects near-term direction to be heavily influenced by ETF flows and macro data, while longer-term prospects will depend on whether expanding institutional rails translate into sustained capital allocation back into digital assets.