Coinbase Analysts See Strong Crypto Outlook for Q4 Amid Favorable Conditions

Coinbase analysts remain bullish on the crypto market heading into the fourth quarter, pointing to strong liquidity, supportive regulation, and a favorable macroeconomic environment as key drivers of continued momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC), trading at $115,360, is expected to outperform market expectations thanks to resilient macro tailwinds, according to analysts David Duong and Colin Basco. They argue that risks to the current U.S. monetary policy trajectory are limited, barring unexpected shocks to energy prices. In addition, growing on-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is creating a solid price floor.

While seasonality has historically weighed on Bitcoin—with six consecutive September declines between 2017 and 2022—this trend failed to hold in 2023 and 2024. The analysts highlight that such patterns, based on small sample sizes, are unreliable indicators compared to broader market dynamics.

Coinbase emphasized the importance of the DAT cycle, noting that publicly disclosed treasuries now hold more than 1 million BTC ($110 billion), 4.9 million ETH ($21.3 billion), and 8.9 million SOL ($1.8 billion) as of September 10. This accumulation underscores institutional confidence and long-term support for crypto assets.

The report also points to a shift among late entrants chasing altcoins further down the risk curve. This has created what Coinbase describes as a “player-versus-player” phase, where large-cap tokens dominate while smaller projects face consolidation pressures. With retail investors reentering the market, altcoins could see increased volatility but also opportunities for selective growth.

Overall, Coinbase maintains a positive outlook for Q4, expecting strong liquidity, regulatory momentum, and a favorable macro backdrop to keep digital asset markets well supported and positioned for further gains.