Bitcoin May Have Peaked This Cycle, Says Analyst David Vallieres

Trader David Vallieres believes Bitcoin may have already reached the top of its current market cycle. In a recent social media post, Vallieres referenced historical patterns, noting that past Bitcoin bull runs ended with either a double-top or triple-top formation. He suggests a similar structure could be unfolding now.

Bitcoin hit a high of $105,364 on Dec. 17, corrected, and then surged to a new all-time high of $109,356—potentially signaling a cycle peak. However, Vallieres clarified that this doesn’t necessarily indicate the start of a bear market. On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly surged to $93,868 before slipping to $91,809.

Despite growing bullish sentiment, Vallieres’ warning stands in contrast to the ongoing optimism driven by record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. In just four days, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.3 billion, including $917 million on Wednesday alone. This trend underscores strong institutional interest.

Fidelity Digital Assets also noted that Bitcoin supply on exchanges is decreasing due to public company purchases. However, Vallieres cautioned that this metric is unreliable and should not be heavily relied upon for price forecasts.

Vallieres also issued a subtle warning regarding XRP. The CME Group’s upcoming launch of XRP futures, expected next month, may not be entirely positive for the asset. He referenced the 2018 launch of CME’s Bitcoin futures, which coincided with the end of that market cycle. “Oh, well… if you remember the BTC futures launch, heads-up,” Vallieres warned.

While institutional adoption continues to grow, Vallieres’ cycle-top analysis serves as a reminder that crypto markets often move in patterns—and history might be repeating itself. Investors are urged to stay alert as the market evolves.