Circle Stock (CRCL) Eyes 60% Upside as USDC Stablecoin Adoption Defies Crypto Market Slump

Bernstein analysts have initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with an outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying roughly 60% upside from its current price near $120. The bullish call comes after Circle shares more than doubled in recent weeks, driven by a strong earnings beat that analysts believe triggered a short squeeze.

The central argument behind Bernstein's thesis is that stablecoin adoption is increasingly decoupling from the volatile crypto market. Circle's USDC stablecoin supply has rebounded to nearly $78 billion — just below its all-time high — even as Bitcoin and broader digital assets remain well off their peaks. The overall U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin market has held steady at around $270 billion despite ongoing bearish conditions.

Transaction activity is another tailwind. Adjusted stablecoin volumes climbed more than 90% year-over-year, while rising transaction velocity signals that stablecoins are now being used well beyond crypto speculation. Payments integration is playing a growing role, with Visa supporting over 130 stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries and processing approximately $4.6 billion in annualized settlement volume.

Circle is also scaling its Circle Payments Network, a cross-border infrastructure that allows institutions to send USDC and convert it to local currencies through banking partners. The network has grown to around 55 institutional members, with annualized volumes reaching $5.7 billion earlier this year.

Looking further ahead, Bernstein flagged an emerging opportunity in AI-driven agentic finance. As autonomous software agents proliferate online, stablecoins are positioned to become a dominant payment rail for machine-to-machine micropayments — covering services like API calls and automated workflows. To capitalize on this shift, Circle is developing Arc, a high-throughput blockchain built specifically for fast, low-cost payments at scale.