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As Hong Kong licenses new Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, top analyst Willy Woo forecasts a potential Bitcoin price spike to $650,000, inspired by robust ETF investments and favorable market conditions.
Analyst Willy Woo Forecasts Dramatic Bitcoin Rise to $650K with Hong Kong ETF Launch
Willy Woo, Co-founder of CMCC Crest and an analyst, commented on the issue in an X article, providing insights into the probable trajectory of Bitcoin's price in light of ETF acceptance in Hong Kong.
According to Woo (via CoinGape), the new Bitcoin ETFs could generate price objectives of $91,000 at the bear market's bottom and $650,000 at the bull market's peak if ETF investors completely deploy capital following asset managers' recommendations.
Woo notes, however, that these estimates are not particular to the current market cycle, as capital expenditures take time to complete. He believes that once asset managers' capital is fully deployed, Bitcoin will outperform gold in capitalization.
Woo's estimates are based on history since exceptional growth occurred shortly following the adoption of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the United States, earning plaudits from Michael Saylor.
Willy Woo Projects Bitcoin Market Cap to Soar, Eyes $2.56 Trillion Investment Boost from ETFs
Woo used a back-of-the-envelope calculation to help the crypto community comprehend his forecasts and provide an approximate estimate of the potential influence of ETF adoption on Bitcoin's price.
He began by considering the entire capital managed by asset managers, currently valued at $100 trillion. Based on the standard 2% allocation advice for Bitcoin (as shown with Fidelity), this equates to a $2 trillion allocation to BTC.
Currently, Bitcoin has around $561,159,959 in investment, as calculated on-chain. With the inclusion of ETF capital, total investment in Bitcoin would be $2.56 trillion.
Woo then utilizes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to determine prospective market capitalization at various market phases. The MVRV ratio is approximately 5x at bull market highs and around 0.7x at bear market lows.
This yields estimated market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion, respectively, with price objectives of $650,000 and $91,000 per coin.
Woo adds that these estimates indicate a lower bound because they did not account for other variables, such as self-custody inflows, which are currently significant.
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