Trump’s Pardon of Binance Founder Fuels Speculation Over Sam Bankman-Fried’s Fate

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pardon Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, marking his second major act of clemency toward a high-profile crypto figure within a year. The move has triggered intense speculation over whether disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be next in line for a pardon.

The announcement drew mixed reactions—cheers from crypto advocates and criticism from skeptics who warn of potential conflicts of interest. Prediction markets like Polymarket quickly reflected the frenzy, with odds of SBF being released before year-end jumping from 4% to 16% in just hours.

Trump’s pardon of CZ follows his earlier clemency for Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, who had been serving two life sentences for narcotics distribution and money laundering. Compared to Ulbricht, Zhao’s crimes—violating the Bank Secrecy Act and regulatory non-compliance—were far less severe, involving failures in oversight rather than direct harm or theft.

SBF’s offenses fall between these two extremes. Convicted in 2024 on charges including wire fraud and money laundering, he was sentenced to 25 years for misusing billions in FTX customer funds. While his crimes caused widespread financial harm, they lacked the violent implications of Ulbricht’s Silk Road empire.

Politically, a pardon for SBF presents challenges. Trump’s recent actions position him as a pro-crypto figure, but SBF’s history as a major Democratic donor could work against him. Moreover, unlike CZ, SBF never accepted guilt or showed remorse—factors likely to weigh heavily in Trump’s decision-making.

Though the odds of a pardon remain uncertain, Trump’s unpredictable approach to clemency and his efforts to court crypto voters mean speculation will continue to swirl.