Bitcoin Slips Below $78K as ‘Rektember’ Risks Return

Bitcoin started September under pressure, slipping about 1% to below $78,000 as traders brace for a month historically known as “Rektember” because of its weak cryptocurrency returns.

Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s worst month on average, delivering a decline of roughly 3% and recording only five positive monthly performances. However, recent history offers some optimism, as Bitcoin has posted gains in each of the past three Septembers.

BTC entered the month after surging 25% in August, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. The sharp rally could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to consolidation or a broader correction as investors lock in profits.

Macroeconomic conditions are also creating headwinds for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole last week, emphasizing persistent inflation concerns. His remarks contributed to a global bond sell-off, with several sovereign yields reaching fresh cycle highs and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.784%.

Markets are pricing in a 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 meeting. Another increase could follow before year-end, potentially lifting the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% by the end of 2026.

Higher interest rates generally pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets by tightening financial conditions and supporting the U.S. dollar. Gold has also faced selling pressure, dropping more than 2% on Tuesday.

Geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty. Continued U.S. strikes against Iran have heightened instability in the Middle East, pushing WTI crude oil to around $88 per barrel, up 2% over the past 24 hours and its highest level since late July.

Seasonal weakness extends beyond crypto markets. Since 1975, September has been the only month in which the S&P 500 has generated a negative average return, reinforcing concerns that Bitcoin could face a volatile month ahead.