Bitcoin’s Split From Gold Could Strengthen Its Long-Term Role as a Safe Haven

Bitcoin’s long-held reputation as “digital gold” is being tested as the cryptocurrency continues to diverge from traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, but analysts at JPMorgan argue this divergence may ultimately support bitcoin’s long-term investment case rather than weaken it.

In 2025, gold surged more than 60%, fueled by aggressive central bank purchases and heightened demand for safety amid global uncertainty. Silver also benefited from similar dynamics. Bitcoin, however, has struggled into early 2026, recording multiple monthly declines and underperforming not only precious metals but also several major risk assets. According to JPMorgan, this growing gap reflects a shift in how investors currently perceive bitcoin, with its role as a hedge against market stress temporarily diminished.

The analysts note that recent pressure on risk assets, particularly technology stocks, has spilled over into the broader digital asset market. Bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds have seen selloffs, suggesting negative sentiment among both institutional and retail investors. At the same time, the supply of stablecoins has contracted, reinforcing the view that capital is moving away from crypto markets during this period of uncertainty.

Despite the short-term weakness, JPMorgan maintains a constructive long-term outlook for bitcoin. While gold has outperformed bitcoin since October, it has done so with significantly higher volatility. This contrast, the analysts argue, actually enhances bitcoin’s appeal over time. Lower volatility positions bitcoin as a potentially more stable hedge once investor confidence returns.

The report highlights a theoretical comparison showing that if bitcoin were to match gold’s recent volatility, its price would need to approach $266,000 to reflect similar investment flows. While JPMorgan considers such a level unrealistic in the near term, the comparison underscores bitcoin’s long-term upside if sentiment shifts and it regains parity with gold as protection against extreme or “catastrophic” scenarios.

Ultimately, JPMorgan suggests that bitcoin’s current divergence from gold does not invalidate its safe-haven narrative. Instead, it may represent a transitional phase as the digital asset matures and carves out a distinct role alongside, rather than in direct competition with, traditional hedges like gold and silver.