Ripple Unlocks $1B XRP in January 2026: What It Really Means for Price and Supply

As 2026 begins, XRP traders are bracing for another closely watched event: Ripple’s scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow on January 1. While headlines highlight the sheer size of the unlock—worth roughly $1.9 billion at the current XRP price of $1.88—the real market impact is likely far more nuanced than the numbers suggest.

Ripple’s escrow system, launched in 2017, was specifically designed to avoid sudden supply shocks. Each month, 1 billion XRP is unlocked, but historically Ripple re-locks between 60% and 80% of those tokens. This means that only a fraction typically enters active circulation. In December 2025, for instance, around 70% of unlocked XRP was returned to escrow, leaving an estimated 300 to 400 million XRP potentially liquid. If January follows the same pattern, the net increase in circulating supply could be relatively modest.

Despite this shown discipline, XRP price action remains under pressure. Some analysts warn of downside risk, even pointing to the possibility of a sharp correction. However, on-chain and institutional data paint a more balanced picture. US spot XRP ETFs have recorded over 30 consecutive days of inflows, with $15.55 million added on December 30 alone, bringing total ETF assets to approximately $1.27 billion. These consistent inflows suggest growing institutional confidence in XRP’s long-term role.

Supply dynamics on exchanges further support this view. Over the past year, XRP balances held on exchanges have reportedly dropped from about 4 billion to under 1.5 billion, signaling a tightening liquid supply. Combined with ETF accumulation and controlled escrow releases, this reduction may help offset potential selling pressure.

Regulation also plays a role in shaping expectations. The upcoming Senate markup of the CLARITY Act in January 2026 could influence how aggressively Ripple chooses to re-lock XRP. Clearer rules for banks and financial institutions may encourage broader adoption, while uncertainty could lead to more conservative supply management.

Beyond short-term price speculation, XRP’s narrative has evolved. Ripple is increasingly positioned as a provider of institutional financial infrastructure, with XRPL supporting stablecoins, custody, and settlement. In this context, monthly XRP unlocks are less about market shocks and more about measured deployment. While the 1 billion XRP release will grab attention, history suggests its real impact will depend on strategy, demand, and regulation—not just the headline figure.