MSTR Stock Faces Heavy Selling Pressure as Options Signal Extreme Bearish Sentiment

MSTR stock is under growing pressure as investors brace for a critical MSCI index delisting decision that could significantly impact Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. With the January 15 deadline approaching, options market data shows extreme bearish sentiment, raising concerns about further downside risk for the stock.

According to data from Barchart, put options volume on MSTR has surged sharply, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection. Implied volatility has also increased, while open interest is heavily skewed toward puts, signaling that traders are positioning for potential losses. The put-to-call ratio stands at 1.57 for the January 9 options expiry, but sentiment becomes even more pessimistic for the January 16 expiry, where the ratio spikes to 3.55. Such levels typically indicate extreme bearishness and strong expectations of selling pressure.

The negative outlook is largely tied to fears of an MSCI index delisting. If Strategy is removed from the MSCI index, it could force index-tracking funds to sell MSTR shares, intensifying downward pressure on an already volatile stock. These concerns are amplified by declining mNAV levels and Bitcoin’s recent weakness, as BTC appears to be entering a bear market phase.

Despite the broader pessimism, MSTR stock closed slightly higher at $158.81 on Friday, up 0.063%. However, performance remains weak overall, with the stock down 47.10% year-to-date, significantly underperforming Bitcoin, which is down around 5% over the same period. Historical data also shows that Strategy has experienced repeated drawdowns during previous crypto bear markets, with past dilutions exposing shareholders to notable downside risks.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor continues to signal confidence in the company’s long-term Bitcoin strategy. He recently hinted at additional BTC purchases with a cryptic “Back to Orange” post on X, suggesting Strategy may continue accumulating Bitcoin despite market uncertainty and MSCI-related concerns. This stance has drawn criticism from prominent Bitcoin skeptics like Peter Schiff, who questioned how further purchases would be financed.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,530, up 2% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume surging by 130%. As markets await the MSCI decision, MSTR stock remains highly sensitive to both Bitcoin price action and institutional fund flows, keeping investor sentiment on edge.