Bitcoin’s Bull Market May Be Just Beginning as Key Metrics Turn Bullish

Many investors believe the crypto market could be approaching the end of its current cycle, with the fourth quarter potentially marking a top for Bitcoin. However, fresh on-chain data suggests the opposite — the bull market might still be in its early stages.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200WMA), a long-term indicator that smooths price volatility and has historically only trended upward, has now surpassed $53,000. This level often represents a critical line of long-term support for Bitcoin, reflecting the asset’s growing resilience.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized price — the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain — has just risen above the 200WMA, sitting at $54,000. Historically, this crossover has been a bullish signal, marking the transition from bear to bull phases.

In previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, the realized price remained above the 200WMA during bull markets, expanding the gap between the two as prices surged. When the realized price eventually dropped below the 200WMA, it consistently indicated the onset of a bear market.

During the 2022 downturn, Bitcoin’s realized price fell below this critical threshold, signaling deep bearish sentiment. But now that it has climbed back above the 200WMA, the technical landscape appears to be flipping bullish once again.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s renewed strength above these key moving averages could suggest that the current rally is just getting started — not nearing its end.