Bitcoin Shines as Crypto Market Stalls in H1 2025

The global crypto market saw minimal movement in the first half of 2025, despite political and economic turbulence. According to TradingView, total cryptocurrency market capitalization inched up just 3% to $3.27 trillion. While investor hopes were high amid Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and expectations of crypto-friendly policies and a U.S. digital asset reserve, the market's reaction remained muted.

Bitcoin (BTC) was the standout performer, rising 13% year-to-date and propping up the broader market. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 25%, while Solana (SOL) declined nearly 17%. The OTHERS index, which excludes the top 10 digital assets, sank 30%, signaling steep losses among smaller altcoins.

Analysts point to a potential turnaround in the second half of the year. Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, noted that July has historically delivered average gains of 7.56% for crypto since 2013, suggesting a possible seasonal tailwind. He also emphasized growing corporate interest in crypto treasury strategies, expanding beyond BTC to include ETH and other assets.

Coinbase analysts maintain a bullish outlook, citing a favorable macro backdrop, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and advancing U.S. legislation for stablecoins and crypto regulation. However, Bitfinex analysts cautioned that Q3 has traditionally been the weakest for BTC, averaging only 6% gains, with subdued volatility likely keeping prices range-bound in the near term.

As traders await more clarity, bitcoin’s relative strength may continue to anchor the market. Yet, without a broader rally or regulatory breakthroughs, most digital assets may struggle to regain momentum heading into late 2025.