Fidelity Flags Rising Influence of Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply

Fidelity Digital Assets has spotlighted a key trend in Bitcoin's ecosystem: the growing impact of "ancient" Bitcoin—coins that haven’t moved in over a decade. According to the firm, this long-dormant supply now surpasses the daily issuance of new Bitcoin, with 566 ancient coins compared to 450 newly mined per day.

At current prices, the total value of these unmoved coins has surged to around $360 billion. Fidelity suggests that this increasing share of long-term holders is shaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. By 2035, the ancient supply could represent as much as 30% of the total Bitcoin in circulation.

Bitcoin’s built-in scarcity has long been a core part of its value proposition. As more BTC becomes locked up by high-conviction holders, its circulating supply tightens, a trend typically seen as bullish. However, Fidelity warns that this isn't always a clear signal for higher prices. When these long-term holders decide to sell—especially in times of market uncertainty—it can lead to sharp price drops.

The report notes that a wave of ancient coins began moving in late 2024, likely from holders cashing out after years of gains. This activity contributed to selling pressure in Q1 2025 and was accompanied by a decline in the supply held by five-year holders.

Fidelity also highlights the growing role of public companies accumulating Bitcoin, further influencing supply metrics. Still, the key takeaway is that while Bitcoin's scarcity increases, market sentiment and holder behavior continue to be critical factors in price movements.

This shifting balance between issuance and dormant supply underscores Bitcoin’s evolution as a maturing digital asset, with long-term holders now playing a pivotal role in shaping its market dynamics.