Bitcoin Could Be First Target as Quantum Computing Threat Nears, Experts Warn

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could become the first real-world victims of quantum computing, potentially signaling a major cybersecurity shift that would eventually affect banks, governments, and encrypted systems worldwide, according to industry experts.

Eddy Zervigon, CEO of cybersecurity firm Quantum Xchange, believes cryptocurrencies are the most likely testing ground for attackers once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available. Because blockchain networks are decentralized, they could be targeted before traditional financial institutions.

Zervigon said a quantum computer capable of breaking the elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum does not yet exist, but the timeline is getting shorter. Leading technology companies, including IBM and Microsoft, have suggested commercially viable quantum computers capable of threatening current encryption could emerge around 2029.

Recent research has strengthened those concerns. Earlier this year, Google researchers estimated that cracking the cryptography protecting major cryptocurrencies would require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits—about 20 times fewer than previous estimates. The findings prompted many experts to move their projected "Q-Day" timeline closer to 2029.

The U.S. government is also accelerating preparations, targeting 2028 for advanced quantum computing capabilities while aiming to migrate sensitive federal systems to post-quantum cryptography by 2030.

However, experts argue the biggest challenge for Bitcoin is not the technology itself but governance. Deutsche Digital Assets noted that traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan can quickly upgrade their encryption through internal decisions, while Bitcoin requires broad consensus from its decentralized community before implementing major protocol changes.

Academic research supports this concern, highlighting Bitcoin's lengthy upgrade history. The 2017 SegWit update, for example, sparked intense disagreement that ultimately resulted in hard forks, creating Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold. Researchers warn that achieving the roughly 90% miner consensus required for future security upgrades could prove difficult.

Zervigon also cautioned that quantum computing should not be viewed as a single "Q-Day" event. Instead, attackers may only need enough computing power to decrypt valuable information within weeks or months, rather than instantly, making quantum threats a gradual but increasingly urgent cybersecurity challenge for cryptocurrencies and the broader financial system.