U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End as Prediction Markets Signal Swift Resolution

The record-breaking U.S. government shutdown appears to be approaching its end, with prediction markets showing near-unanimous confidence that a funding deal will pass Congress within days. On Polymarket, traders are betting with a 96% probability that the government will reopen between November 12 and 15, coinciding with the House’s expected vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.

Similarly, contracts on Kalshi—another prediction platform—reflect growing optimism, as traders expect the shutdown to end within the next 72 hours. This surge in confidence followed the Senate’s 60–40 vote approving a temporary funding measure to keep the government running through January 30. The bill reverses mass layoffs, restores back pay and food aid, and ensures continuity of federal operations. However, it leaves one major issue unresolved: the future of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that help millions of Americans afford health insurance.

A December vote on these subsidies is included in the shutdown deal, but the outcome remains uncertain. Even some Trump allies have expressed frustration. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized party leaders for “having no plan” to prevent premium spikes if subsidies expire. Meanwhile, several moderate House Republicans have urged Speaker Mike Johnson to schedule a vote before year’s end, though Johnson has only promised a “deliberative process” once the government reopens.

If the markets are right, federal operations could resume as soon as November 14, following House approval and Trump’s signature. Yet beyond the immediate reopening, the political battle over who bears the blame continues. Prediction markets suggest a divided electorate heading into the 2026 midterms: Polymarket data gives Republicans a 44% chance of retaining the Senate while losing the House, with odds of both a Democratic and Republican sweep tied at 27%.

The shutdown may soon end, but its political fallout—and its influence on future elections—remains far from over.